Economy
"Acting according to the dictates of our moral functions, we necessarily seek the most efficient way to promote the happiness of mankind" - Adam Smith June 16, 1723 – July 17, 1790 Scottish economist and moral philosopher
US falling far behind China in nuclear power
The United States is between 10 and 15 years behind China in rolling out next-generation reactors
The United States is falling far behind China in nuclear energy, with the world's largest economy lagging behind the Asian giant by 10 to 15 years in rolling out next-generation reactors, a report has found.
China has 27 nuclear reactors under development, with the average reactor taking seven years to come online – far faster than for most other countries, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation said in a report released on Sunday.
Between 2008 and 2023, China's share of nuclear patents increased from 1.3 percent to 13.4 percent and the country now leads in the number of nuclear fusion patent applications, the Washington-based research institute said.
Beijing's rapid rise in the field has been due to a "coherent national strategy" to develop nuclear power, including low-interest financing, feed-in tariffs, and streamlined regulatory approval.
"China's government has assigned considerable priority to domestic nuclear reactor construction as part of Beijing's broader energy strategy," the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation said.
"Looking ahead, China appears likely to use this established domestic capacity as a foundation for competitive reactor exports, much as its 'dual-circulation' strategy has accomplished in other areas, such as electric vehicles and batteries."
A common narrative that China is "a copier" and the US an "innovator" has encouraged a lackadaisical attitude towards industrial policy, according to the institute.
"First, this assumption is misguided because it is possible for innovators to lose leadership to copiers with lower cost structures, as we have seen in many US industries, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, solar panels, telecom equipment, machine tools, and, as noted here, quite possibly, nuclear power. Second, it's not clear that China is a sluggish copier and always destined to be a follower," the report said.
The US is still the top country for nuclear power generation, ahead of France and China, with its 94 reactors accounting for about one-third of global output.
But the country has built only two new reactors in the past decade, both of which arrived years late and billions of dollars over budget.
China in December unveiled the world's first so-called fourth-generation nuclear plant at Shidao Bay in eastern Shandong province.
Chinese state media has touted the plant's reactors, which use gas for cooling instead of pressurised water, as being safer and more efficient than previous generations of nuclear technology.
IMF sees slow, steady 2024 global growth; China, war escalation pose risks
WASHINGTON
The global economy is set for another year of slow but steady growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, with U.S. strength pushing world output through headwinds from lingering high inflation, weak demand in China and Europe, and spillovers from two regional wars.
The IMF forecast global real GDP growth of 3.2% for 2024 and 2025 - the same rate as in 2023. The 2024 forecast was revised upward by 0.1 percentage point from the previous World Economic Outlook's estimate in January, largely due to a significant upward revision in the U.S. outlook.
"The global economy continues to display remarkable resilience with growth holding steady and inflation declining, but many challenges still lie ahead," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist, told reporters.
A potential escalation of the Middle East conflict after Iran's rocket and drone attack on Israel could have a "strong effect" on limiting growth, he said, adding that it would raise oil prices and inflation, triggering tighter monetary policy from central banks.
The U.S. Treasury is preparing to hit Iran with new sanctions in coming days that could limit its ability to export oil, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday.
The report described an "adverse scenario" in which a Middle East escalation would lead to a 15% increase in oil prices and higher shipping costs would hike global inflation by about 0.7 percentage points.
The IMF forecast that global median headline inflation will fall to 2.8% by the end of 2024 from 4% last year, and to 2.4% in 2025.
U.S., EUROPE DIVERGE
The IMF revised its forecast for 2024 U.S. growth sharply upward to 2.7% from the 2.1% projected in January, on stronger-than-expected employment and consumer spending. It expects the delayed effect of tighter monetary and fiscal policy to slow U.S. growth to 1.9% in 2025, though that also was an upward revision from the 1.7% estimate in January.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has cited the stark divergence between the U.S. and Europe, which is facing slower growth and faster-falling inflation.
The latest IMF forecasts bear this out, with a downward revision to the euro zone 2024 growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.9% in January, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment in Germany and France. Britain's 2024 growth forecast was revised down by 0.1 percentage point to 0.5% amid high interest rates and stubbornly high inflation.
CHINA PROPERTY WOES
The IMF left unchanged its forecast for China's 2024 growth to fall to 4.6% from 5.2% in 2023, with a further drop to 4.1% for 2025. But it warned that the lack of a comprehensive restructuring package for the country's troubled property sector could prolong a downturn in domestic demand and worsen China's outlook.
Such a situation could also intensify deflationary pressures, leading to a surge in cheap exports of manufactured goods that could stoke trade retaliation by other countries - a scenario that Yellen warned about during a trip to China earlier this month.
Gourinchas said, however, that China's stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth may prompt an upward revision to the outlook.
The IMF recommended that China accelerate the exit of non-viable developers and promote the completion of unfinished housing projects, while supporting vulnerable households to help restore consumer demand.
But the global lender noted bright spots in some big emerging market countries, raising its growth forecast for Brazil in 2024 by half a percentage point to 2.2% and increasing the forecast for India's growth by 0.3 percentage point to 6.8%.
It noted that Group of 20 large emerging market countries are playing a bigger role in the global trading system and have the capability to shoulder more of the growth burden going forward.
But the IMF said low-income developing countries continue to struggle with post-pandemic adjustments and greater levels of economic "scarring" than middle-income emerging markets. As a group, these low-income developing countries saw their 2024 growth forecast cut to 4.7% from an estimate of 4.9% in January.
RUSSIAN RESILIENCE
In one of the biggest surprises, Russia's 2024 growth forecast was increased to 3.2% from the 2.6% projected in January. The report said the increase partly reflected continued strong oil export revenues amid higher global oil prices despite a price-cap mechanism imposed by Western countries, as well as strong government spending and investment related to war production, along with higher consumer spending in a tight labor market. The IMF also upgraded Russia's 2025 growth forecast to 1.8% from 1.1% in January.
Ukraine's growth, which is highly dependent on economic aid from the West, is forecast to slow to 3.2% in 2024 and accelerate to 6.5% in 2025.
While initial price spikes for grains, oil and other commodities have faded since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a widening of the conflict could cause them to intensify.