Economy

Russia surprises World Bank as 'developed economy'

Against all forecasts, Russian GDP fell by only 2.1% in 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began and when all international organizations predicted a recession of up to 10% for Russia.

"Russia is now a developed country." This is not an assessment of the Kremlin propagandists, but of the... World Bank.

In other words, according to the standards and parameters of the institution, the Russian economy "is at the same table" with Germany, the United States and the other G7 countries.

"Russia's strong growth is moving the country into a high-income economy," World Bank analysts estimate.

A note published this week pointed out that Russia has surpassed $14,000 in per capita income - the threshold set by the World Bank for a country to be considered developed.

"Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military activity in 2023, while growth was also helped by the recovery in trade (+6.8%), the financial sector (+8.7%) and construction (+ 6.6%). These factors led to an increase in both real GDP by 3.6% and nominal GDP (10.9%). GDP per capita in Russia increased by 11.2%, "World Bank economists point out.

The World Bank divides the world's economies into four income groups: low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high.

The rankings are updated every year on July 1, based on annual GDP per capita as an indicator of the economic capacity of citizens' disposable income.

"Russia is becoming a developed economy due to its unstoppable GDP boom," according to the World Bank

Against all forecasts, Russian GDP fell by only 2.1% in 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began and when all international organizations predicted a recession of up to 10% for Russia.

"Coal" the sanctions

In 2023, Russian GDP fully recovered and grew by 3.6%, and in 2024, the economy is on track to expand by 3.3%, with GDP per capita increasing by 5.6%, compared to 0 .5% expected in the eurozone.

The wave of Western sanctions seems to have had no effect in terms of Moscow's economic weakening. Even as Russia's foreign assets were frozen, its economy was cut off from the global financial system and its energy exports were targeted.

"Nearly 27 months after the invasion, the Russian economy is far from paralyzed," market players point out. "Sanctions have not led to shortages in stores. The shelves of Russian supermarkets are full. It is true that rising prices are a problem. Many Western companies have pulled out of Russia, yet many of their products continue to be imported through various channels. If you look carefully, you can still find American Coca and Pepci cola in Russian stores," they add.

Instead of buckling under the weight of Western sanctions, the Russian economy found new markets in the East and South.

All this allows Russian officials to boast that efforts to isolate Russia politically and economically have not succeeded.

Turn to East and South

Business leaders from Europe and America may not have made it to the annual St. Petersburg Economic Forum this year, but organizers of this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum say representatives from more than 130 countries attended.

"It seems that the Russian economy has managed to adapt to very adverse external conditions," says Evgeny Nadorshin, senior economist at PF Capital. "There is no doubt that the sanctions had a big impact on the working mechanism of the economy, but many things have been restored."

Moscow has redirected its oil exports from Europe to China and India. In December 2022, G7 and EU leaders unveiled a price cap plan aimed at limiting Russia's oil export revenue to keep it below $60 a barrel. But Western experts acknowledge that Russia was able to circumvent this plan very easily. The result: Moscow continues to make money.

Chinese life preserver

Russia has become China's largest oil supplier. But Beijing's importance to Moscow goes far beyond energy exports. China has become a lifeline for the Russian economy. Trade between the two countries reached a record 240 billion dollars last year.

One does not need to be an economist to understand the importance of China to Russia which is supposed to be suffering from Western sanctions. Walking through St. Petersburg or Moscow, one will see that electronics stores are full of Chinese tablets, gadgets and mobile phones. Chinese car dealerships also dominate the local car market.

The Russian automobile industry is also not sitting still. At a recent trade show in Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was presented with the latest version of a classic Russian brand, the Volga, based on a Chinese car, the Changan. "Where was this steering wheel made?" is it chinese asked the prime minister, apparently irritated by the absence of Russian components. "We want the steering wheel to be Russian," Mishutin said.

War economy

Since Russia launched what the Kremlin still calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine, weapons factories have been operating around the clock and more and more Russians are employed in the defense sector. This raised wages in the military-industrial complex.

"The support for the economy is first reflected in the increase in military spending. They are estimated to have doubled from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, to reach levels corresponding to the Soviet period. Most of the increase in manufacturing output measured by official statistics since the beginning of the war is due to the production capacities of the companies of the military-industrial complex," European diplomats note.

But of course, if the Kremlin spends a lot on the military, it will have less to spend on everything else.

"In the long run, it destroys the economy," says Chris Weafer, head of Eurasian consulting firm Macro-Advisory. "There is no money for future development.

He recalls that in 2020, the "National Project" program, which planned to allocate 400 billion dollars to improve Russia's infrastructure, transport and communications, was the subject of many discussions. Instead, almost all of that money went to finance the military-industrial complex. This is why it would be wrong to conclude that Russia has defeated the sanctions. emphasize market factors.

"So far, Putin has found ways to circumvent and reduce the threat of sanctions, but the pressure on the Russian economy has not disappeared," market players point out.

BIS: We are one step before a new global financial crisis – Public debt at record levels

Agustín Carstens says global economy on track for 'soft landing' after inflation, but political unrest poses risks

Steadily rising levels of government debt could disrupt global financial markets, the head of the body that advises central banks argued on Sunday. That's for Agustín Carstens, director general of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), who said the global economy was on a "soft landing" from the inflation crisis, but warned that policymakers, especially politicians, must they are careful.

Global public debt is already at record levels and elections - from the US presidential in November to Mexico and South Africa, as well as France and Britain next week - pose risks.

Emmanuel Macron's decision to call early elections in France has sent banking stocks tumbling and roiled bond markets, exacerbating concerns about fiscal sustainability in the eurozone's second-largest economy. Polls published ahead of Sunday's first round of voting suggested the far-right could win by record margins in the second round.

Carstens said the BIS was not referring to "one or two" governments, but his message was clear: "They [governments] need to limit the growth of public debt and accept that interest rates may not return to extremely low levels where they were before the pandemic," he said. "We need a solid foundation to build on."

With interest rates unlikely to return to ultra-low levels and cost pressures from an aging population and climate meltdown, economic stimulus plans and a general increase in protectionism could disrupt already sensitive markets, the BIS warned in its annual her report.

"They can surprise you," Carstens told reporters, pointing to the turmoil in Britain's markets after then-prime minister Liz Truss' fiscal plans that sent some pension funds into near collapse. "You really want to avoid this."

Promises

France's parties have all promised new spending.

Macron's government had promised to reduce the budget deficit from 5.5% of GDP last year to a European Union ceiling of 3% by 2027 – a goal that may be unattainable after the election, which ends on July 7.

If it forms government, Marine's National Rally (RN) will cut value added tax (VAT) on energy, which it says will cost €7bn (£5.9bn) for the rest of this year and 12 billion euros in a full year.

The RN will also scrap the current pension thresholds in 2023, reducing them to 62 from 64 while it says the fiscal costs will be offset by reductions in contributions to the EU budget.

The left-wing New People's Front alliance, now second in the polls, says it will increase civil servants' pay by 10%, provide free school meals and transport, and increase housing subsidies by 10%.

All of the above has driven up the cost of borrowing for the French government, with the risk premium demanded by holders of French debt over the German bund reaching record levels.

France's CAC 40 is down 6% since Macron dissolved parliament, with French banks among the biggest losers. Since the French president's announcement, the big three – Société Générale, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole – have fallen 10%-14%.

French banks are heavily indebted and are expected to suffer if credit costs rise sharply. On the plus side for Carstens, central banks have successfully curbed inflation, which had hit multi-decade highs after the Covid-19 pandemic and then Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which rattled commodity markets.

"Compared to last year, I must say we are in a much better position," said the former head of Mexico's central bank.

Although Carstens said central banks deserved praise for navigating a difficult path that could lead to a recession, he added that they needed to persevere, likening the inflation battle to a course of antibiotics to treat a disease.

He also outlined an "extreme" scenario in which inflation rises again and central banks raise interest rates further - but that is the worst case scenario.

The next great war is not long

Dramatic warning: Food and water wars are coming

As mentioned food protectionism has forced some governments to boost domestic supplies.

Sunny Verghese, chief executive of Olam Agri, a Singapore-based agricultural trading company, spoke at a Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild consumer conference last week and warned the audience that the world is heading for a period of "food wars" as geopolitical fires are spreading all over the world.

"We have fought many wars over oil. We will fight bigger wars for food and water," said Verghese, quoted by the Financial Times, adding that food protectionism had forced some governments to boost domestic food supplies, exacerbating food inflation.

He pointed out that the increase in non-tariff trade barriers in 2022 in response to the war in Ukraine – 1,266 from 154 countries, according to his calculation – had caused "an excessive demand-supply imbalance".

Increased prices in the coming years as well

Food prices have soared in recent years, whether due to adverse weather conditions (caused by El Niño) or the war in Ukraine. These prices are likely to remain elevated for years to come.

Verghese said richer countries have built up surpluses in strategic goods due to global uncertainty, which has contributed to higher food prices. "India, China, they all have safety reserves," he said, adding: "This just makes the global problem worse."

The latest figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations show that world food prices are starting to rise again and remain well above pre-Soviet levels.

What is clear is that the poorest countries are extremely vulnerable to rising food prices and shortages, and these areas are at the highest risk of social unrest.

However, richer economies are not immune. The FT cited two recent examples of food protectionism, which is likely to continue in the coming years, exacerbating risks to the food security of the world's most vulnerable countries.

In 2022, Indonesia banned palm oil exports to protect the local market, while last year India imposed export restrictions on certain types of rice in a bid to curb rising domestic prices ahead of parliamentary elections after a monsoon disrupted production and caused fears of a supply shortage.

Risks are turning to more restrictions on food exports as the world disintegrates into a multipolar state full of conflict and chaos.

And the water shortage in the foreground

Water scarcity is a phenomenon that our planet is already facing and in the future it will intensify and affect many countries.

Within the next 20 years, it is estimated that more than 30 countries will be faced with water scarcity. Most are in Africa, which is already affected in the Middle East. Apart from these, however, developed countries of the Mediterranean, Latin America and South-East Asia will also be faced with water shortages.

Surely this all sounds strange and many do not believe that it is going to happen. We are used to having water in abundance and at little cost. After all, our planet is covered 75% by water, one might think. Essentially, however, we are not talking about seawater, which makes up more than 90% of the water on earth, but about fresh water, rainwater, ice water and underground springs.

What causes water scarcity?

Environmental pollution is a serious cause

It is known that humans as a species do not respect the planet where we live. Pollution, especially since the industrial revolution until today, has exceeded all limits. This has the consequence of contaminating the water sources, making it unfit for use.

Climate change

Climate change, mainly as a consequence of environmental pollution, is a cause that will cause water shortages in various regions of the planet. The lack of rain and the melting of the ice have resulted in the water sources drying up and the area becoming desertified.

Overpopulation.

There are already 7.6 billion people living on Earth and the number is constantly increasing. By 2050 it is expected that the number of people on earth will have reached 10 billion. This means that the population is increasing, the needs are also increasing and the most important need for humans is water. This has the consequence that the sources of suitable drinking water from one point onwards cannot cover the needs of an area. China and India are already facing this problem.

Serious problems that the lack of water will create

It is expected that by the 4th decade of the 21st century, close to 2 billion people will live in countries that will have total water scarcity. Water scarcity creates serious problems for humanity. Many people get sick and die from water contamination.

Drinking water for many countries will become a luxury item. There will also be a problem with crops, since there will be no water to irrigate them and produce fruit and food. Of course, crop irrigation is one reason why water scarcity is worsening, as 70% of fresh water is used for this purpose.

The most serious problem that water scarcity will create is the conflicts between peoples over water. It is said that the 3rd world war will be fought over water. Of course, no one can know this, but it does not seem like an improbable scenario at all. Already conflicts that have occurred in recent years are said to have occurred over water. Countries focusing on the future and to protect themselves, try to exploit resources from other countries.

How can it be limited?

In order for water scarcity to be limited and not to dramatically affect humanity, we must first of all change our habits ourselves. We should stop being so wasteful with water. We must understand how important it is and realize the seriousness of the situation.

Beyond that, both we and governments must take ecological measures. This will stop water pollution and climate change. Also, all countries should acquire water storage infrastructure.

A war is not the solution to the problem, only a temporary solution. An effective solution in such difficult times for humanity is cooperation.

Water is the most valuable commodity for sustaining life on the planet. Without it nothing survives. We all need to realize this before it's too late. We are not talking about some very distant scenario, we are talking about the immediate future. What has to be done must be done now.

Russia and Iran are working to develop a new BRICS currency to replace the dollar

The White House pushing for sanctions against developing countries is what led to the idea of ​​de-dollarization in the first place

It is recalled that Russia and China, members of the BRICS, were "the first to think of the idea of ​​creating a new BRICS currency to end the supremacy of the US dollar at the global level," said Yuri Usakov, adviser to President Putin on foreign policy and former ambassador of the Soviet Union and Russia in Washington.

The White House pushing for sanctions against developing countries is what led to the idea of ​​de-dollarization in the first place.

His comments come in line with the BRICS alliance aiming to make local currencies a priority for cross-border transactions. Usakov stressed that the BRICS believe in creating an independent payment system without the need for the US dollar.

CryptoBRICKS

The new BRICS currency payment system will integrate blockchain technology and digital financial assets.

"We believe that the creation of an independent BRICS payment system is an important goal for the future, which will be based on state-of-the-art tools such as digital technologies and blockchain," Usakov said.

The diplomat explained that the BRICS payment system will be convenient for governments, businesses and ordinary people. The BRICS alliance wants to make the payment system accessible to all and tarnish the prospects of the US dollar.

"The main thing is to ensure that it will be convenient for governments, ordinary people and businesses, as well as cost-effective and free from politics," Usakov said.

An ulterior motive

BRICS members India, China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Saudi Arabia have already started using local currencies for international trade settlements in an effort to pressure the dollar. China and Iran use the yuan.

China and Russia are moving to persuade other developing countries to follow suit and cut their ties to the US dollar. This move could be disastrous for the US economy as America will find it difficult to finance its deficit.

If the US does not import the dollar, the currency will circulate back into the country and lead to inflation. The move could send prices skyrocketing with housing, rent and basic daily necessities becoming expensive and unaffordable.

A total of 5 US financial sectors could be affected if the BRICS stop using the dollar for international trade. Areas that could be affected and begin to decline include:

▶Banking and finance

▶Technology and Fintech

▶International trade and investment

▶Consumer Goods and Retail

▶Travel and tourism

Economic plagues/analysis

First of all, the banking and financial sector will be hit the hardest as foreign exchange will begin to decline.

Second, the BRICS are seeking to create their own online services and not depend on American technology for news and social media. Third, foreign investors will stay away from the US dollar as the debt and deficit crisis worsens.

Furthermore, if the US dollar returns home and ceases to be an international currency, the cost of daily necessities will become even more expensive.

Finally, tourists will start paying in local currencies for their trips and leave the US dollar behind. China and Singapore already make tourists pay in their respective countries' local currencies rather than the US dollar.

In conclusion, the BRICS have various plans up their sleeves aimed at hurting the US dollar's prospects. Moreover, if the Biden administration does not act quickly to address the BRICS, halting the dollar's decline could become much more difficult.

The sanctions brought the reactions

The sanctions tactic against Russia and Iran, along with the trade war that has been started by the Trump administration and continues to this day, were the reasons for the collusion between China and Russia.

It is considered almost certain that this cooperation will concern Iran as well.

Washington seeks to achieve the dual goals of its sanctions policy – ​​to cut off money going to the Kremlin to punish it for the war in Ukraine, while not disrupting global energy flows. Therefore, encrypted blockchain technologies could protect Russia from sanctions.

It should be noted that sanctions are binding under international law only when imposed by the UN Security Council. Consequently there are many major global players, such as India, Brazil and China, which do not apply these sanctions.

For Christian von Sest, a sanctions expert at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA), the sanctions have not led Russia and Iran to change their stance. At this stage, however, the USA and the EU are in the process of further tightening the sanctions. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the US is preparing sanctions against certain Chinese banks, in order to exclude them from the global financial system. The aim of the US authorities is to stop Chinese banks acting as middlemen providing support for Russian defense production.

"Completely counterproductive" the American sanctions, with international confidence in the dollar itself as the first victim, the Russian president claimed. Threat of measures against Chinese banks will not disrupt bilateral trade, "we have the solution".

In televised remarks during his visit to China, Putin said these sanctions are illegal unless approved by the UN Security Council. He said they are counterproductive for the United States and demonstrate its "stupidity."

"They completely lack common sense," Putin told reporters.

He said the United States is "sawing off the branch it's sitting on" because its actions undermine confidence in the dollar and lead some countries to reduce the dollar's share of their reserves.

International

Armageddon is Coming: Global Conflict, Billions Destruction, and the Most Hungry in History

This is the new normal…

Our world now witnesses apocalyptic events so often that many of us have become numb.

Major wars are raging worldwide, children in Africa and elsewhere are starving as hunger spreads like wildfire, and "billion dollar disasters" are hitting us more often than in the past.

But as long as these tragedies do not directly affect us, interest remains limited. At the same time, as the level of global suffering rises, hearts grow cold.

The traumatic events of recent years have left deep scars, and there are many who choose to ignore the sad happenings around them because they find it difficult to handle things emotionally.

At the same time, the number of armed conflicts in 2023 was the highest we have seen in a single year since the end of World War II.

According to a study by the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), published on Monday, June 10, last year there were 59 conflicts of which 28 were in Africa. We truly live in an era of "wars and news of wars."

However, since it is not our sons and daughters who are being murdered on the plains of eastern Ukraine, most of us in the Western world are not moved by the bloodshed. But the reality is one: every day more and more young lives are lost.

But if you think things are bad, just wait until Israel and Hezbollah start exchanging thousands of missiles, if China invades Taiwan, and if the Russians and NATO start hammering each other.

Food crisis

Meanwhile, world hunger continues to grow. As reported, the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity last year was the highest ever recorded.

The number of people threatened by hunger in the world has never been higher. In 2023, 281 million people in 59 countries faced acute food insecurity, according to the 2024 World Report on Food Crises, published on Wednesday, April 24, by various international organizations (including UN agencies, the European Union, the Organization of USAID for International Development). This number is up from 2022 (257 million) for the fifth consecutive year.

"The World Report on Food Crises is a wake-up call of human frailties," warned the UN Secretary-General, prefacing the analysis.

A decade ago, world leaders dreamed of a day when hunger would be eradicated. Today, that dream is dead. Right now, hunger is exploding across the African continent.

In Sudan, people eat dirt and leaves to fill their stomachs with something. Time is running out to avert famine in Sudan, the World Food Program warns. Twenty-five million people in the country are in need of humanitarian assistance, 18 million are facing acute food insecurity and 5 million are at emergency levels approaching famine as the civil war crosses the one-year mark.

Amidst so many other crises, the world's largest hunger crisis receives little global attention. In Al Lait refugee camp, for example, people eat dirt and boil leaves, just to get something in their bellies, Reuters reports. Others eat grass.

As long as it doesn't happen to us, most of us don't really care. But even in the US hunger is growing. Over a quarter of the total US population is skipping meals due to insanely high food prices.

According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have experienced a "significant increase" in food prices.

More than a quarter of respondents said the increased costs led them to skip occasional meals, while about a third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on expenses such as food, utilities and rent.

"Food insecurity is a major issue in this country, as millions of Americans don't have enough food to eat or don't have access to healthy food," said Courtney Alev, consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma.

Are we only at the beginning?

We also live in a time when major natural disasters are becoming more frequent.

Last year, our world was hit by "billion dollar disasters", the most ever.

The planet was besieged by a record $63 billion in weather disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of $57 billion set in 2020, insurance broker Gallagher Re said in its annual report issued on January 17.

Unfortunately, this year we may exceed that number. So far in 2024 there have already been 11 "billion dollar disasters" in the US alone. A deadly outbreak of tornadoes last month caused $4.7 billion in damage across the southern, southeastern and central US, making it one of the costliest weather events on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there were 11 confirmed weather and climate events with losses exceeding $1 billion and a total price tag of more than $25 billion.

During the May 6-9 outbreak there were more than 165 tornadoes, which affected Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, officials said. We have already experienced so many historic disasters and hurricane season and the heart of wildfire season is still upon us.

Almost every day we see things happening that we have never seen before. For example, storm chasers just discovered a piece of hail "about the size of a pineapple." More specifically, Val and Amy Castor, veteran storm chasers with Oklahoma City's KWTV, discovered a piece of hail over 3 inches long.

"This is the biggest hail I've ever seen and I've been chasing storms for over 30 years," Castor said.

But this is the "new normal" where the old rules just don't apply. In California, there has been an alarming earthquake sequence in the past two weeks.

In addition, other states are also being hit hard by natural disasters. Brazil has been hit particularly hard. After a series of nightmare floods, now the focus is on fires. Such fires have almost increased tenfold compared to the same period last year.

Data from Brazil's space research agency, the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reveals a staggering 980% jump in fires in the Pantanal wetlands this year to June 5, compared to the same period in 2023.

Speaking of Brazil, it is in the midst of the country's worst dengue pandemic ever. According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), Brazil recorded the highest number of dengue cases worldwide in 2024.

There are nearly 6.3 million possible cases and 3 million confirmed cases in the country.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the number of Mpox cases has risen to an all-time high - and it is the form of the disease that has a particularly high fatality rate. Children are particularly vulnerable: According to the report, "two-thirds (67%) of suspected cases and more than three-quarters (78%) of suspects are people aged 15 [or younger]."

On top of everything else, scientists are reported to have discovered "giant viruses" in the huge ice sheets that cover Greenland. The idea of ​​a giant virus hiding in a huge sheet of ice might sound like the script for the latest sci-fi blockbuster. But it is now a reality.

Hopefully, none of these "viruses" will pose a significant threat to humanity. No doubt, though, there will be more pandemics in the future. The new normal is now here. We live in a world that's going crazy, and you can try to ignore it if you want, but it's the truth.

Oil: "TOUR" -2% in losses WTI - OPEC cuts

US crude oil fell nearly 2% on Tuesday 04/06/2024, expanding a recent loss series to delete most of its profits for the year, as OPEC+ in the previous days announced its plans to increase production Since October.

Specifically, the US crude has so far fell for five consecutive meetings, with the July Futal Fulfillment contract falling 3.6% on Monday in the aftermath of the OPEC+ meeting last weekend.

What did OPEC decided

Members of OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of the cuts in oil production by 2025, but left room for voluntary cuts by eight members who will gradually withdraw from October onwards.

Specifically, in a surprise move, eight producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia presented a detailed plan for a gradual removal of 2.2 million BPD production cuts from October 2024 to September 2025, which means that oil supply will begin. Increase the fourth quarter of this year.

At their last meeting, held online on June 2, 2024, the OPEC+ Member States decided to extend existing oil production cuts by 1.4 million barrels a day until the end of 2024.

Also, Saudi Arabia will further reduce its production by 1 million barrels a day in July, with the possibility of extending if necessary.

Russia will at the same time extend its own voluntary production cuts by 500,000 barrels a day until the end of the year, while the United Arab Emirates is allowed to increase its production.

These decisions were made amid concerns about global economic growth and fuel demand, as well as maintaining oil prices at high levels to fund growth programs.

The market

"The market reaction is frustrating for anyone who produces oil and brings to consumers," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at the PVM petroleum company, in a note on Tuesday.
"If you compare price levels at the end of last week with yesterday's settlement prices, it is almost obvious that the announcement of the gradual reversal of voluntary cuts was mainly responsible for letting the gin come out of the bottle."

The disadvantage should be limited as long as summer demand for gasoline does not disappoint. The recent oil sale should also help reduce global inflationary pressure.

The consequences

Part of oil fall could be associated with concerns about economic growth, and it is worth noting that this strategy of OPEC (for cuts) began in 2022 to address the decline in prices and the aim is to reduce supply to boost the prices.

According to Mukesh Sahdev, an analyst by Rystad Energy, OPEC+ faces "a serious challenge", however: "The number of barrels that actually comes out on the market is probably increased compared to what is recorded." Which threatens to derail the cartel strategy.

OPEC+ decision to extend oil production cuts and implement new cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia has a significant impact on the world energy market.

Specifically:

Stabilization of oil prices: maintaining or increasing production cuts aims to stabilize and possibly increase oil prices. With less market bids, prices tend to rise, which is desirable for oil -producing countries to maintain or increase their revenue.

Response to demand: This decision is taken into account the uncertainty about oil demand worldwide. Concerns about weak economic growth in the US and Europe, as well as the not -so -dynamic recovery of China, have led to pressure on the demand for fuel.

Economic strategy: Saudi Arabia, which needs high oil revenue to fund large growth projects and differentiate its economy, is of particular interest in keeping prices high. The additional reduction in production by Saudi Arabia is aimed at this goal.

Geopolitical Impact: OPEC+ decisions often have geopolitical impacts. The restriction of supply can increase the dependence of other countries on OPEC+oil -producing countries, enhancing their political and economic influence.

It should be noted that these decisions are important for shaping the international oil market, affecting the prices and availability of oil, as well as the economic and geopolitical balance.

Economy|Automotive Industry 

For China's booming EV industry, US and EU markets a tough nut to crack

Chinese EVs are facing a slew of tariffs in Western markets as policymakers fear local brands cannot compete on price.

Compared with Western brands, Chinese EVs have a leg-up in terms of affordability.

In the European Union, Chinese EVs typically sell for 20 percent less than EU-made models, according to the European Commission.

Chinese battery maker CATL, which supplies Tesla, Volkswagen and BMW as well as Chinese EV makers, alone supplies about 40 percent of the world's EV batteries and in late April unveiled the first battery with a driving range of more than 1,000 kilometres on a single charge.

Chinese EVs are increasingly making their mark overseas.

Shenzhen-based BYD sold 525,409 EVs across all markets during the final quarter of last year to become the world's biggest electric car company, beating Tesla's 484,507 units.

China narrowly failed to overtake Japan as the world's largest car exporter overall with 5.22 million vehicles sold overseas.

In the European Union, Chinese EVs increased their market share to 8.2 percent in 2023, up from 0.5 percent in 2019.

The European Federation for Transport and Environment has projected that market share to rise to 11 percent this and as high as 20 percent by 2027.

Growing concern in Western capitals, however, is threatening to derail Chinese EVs' rapid rise.

United States President Joe Biden has cast China's industrial policy as a national security threat, pledging not to allow its manufacturers to "flood" the US market with its vehicles.

"I am not going to let that happen on my watch," Biden said in March. 

Although the Chinese market share of EVs sold in the US is already negligible, Biden in May announced that he would quadruple tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100 percent and triple tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion EV batteries to 25 percent.

The EU has echoed Washington's concerns 

On Wednesday, the EU Commission announced that new duties of between 17.4 percent and 38.1 percent would be imposed on Chinese EVs from July 4 unless Beijing offers a "solution" to subsidies that the bloc says are distorting the market.

The tariffs, introduced after the launch of a probe in October, come on top of already existing duties of 10 percent.

The combined tariffs are close to the 50 percent mark that research provider Rhodium Group has estimated would be necessary for the EU to curb Chinese EV imports.

But they also risk setting the EU on the path of a trade war with China, according to Rene Toender, an independent strategic adviser to the car industry in Scandinavia.

So far, Beijing has called the EU tariff hikes a "typical case of protectionism" and said, "China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."

At the same time, leading up to the EU announcement of the duties, the China Passenger Car Association described a hypothetical 20 percent tariff hike on Chinese EVs as "understandable" given the auto sector's role as a major employer in Europe.

The auto industry provides about 13.8 million jobs in the EU, about 6 percent of all jobs in the bloc.

In the US, about 9.7 million jobs, roughly 5 percent of private sector employment, depend on the industry.

The EU has felt compelled to address a growing fear that the success of Chinese EVs could come at the expense of European jobs.

At the same time, the success of national car brands is a source of national pride in some countries, So, it would be a hard hit to see them lose out to Chinese manufacturers.

Impacts on climate change

Apart from risking Chinese retaliation, the US and EU measures also threaten to undermine efforts to lower carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.

The US government plans to end government purchases of fossil fuel cars by 2035, while several US states including California intend to end the sale of gasoline-only vehicles by the same year.

The EU intends to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars across the bloc from the same date.

Toender said such goals will be unattainable without open access to the Chinese EV industry since the EU accounts for less than 10 percent of global battery output, while China supplies about 76 percent.

"There isn't sufficient battery capacity elsewhere to replace the Chinese production," Rene Toender said.

"So, the global expansion of the Chinese EV industry in the near future could very well be decided by how the West chooses to weigh its climate targets against minimising its EV imports from China."

Made in China 2025 

Meanwhile, Beijing is positioning the EV industry as a key plank of China's future economic development, according to Kasper Ingeman Beck, a postdoctoral scholar of China's political economy and state-led green transition at Copenhagen Business School.

In 2015, the Chinese government highlighted "new energy vehicles" as a key industry for securing the country's prosperity under its "Made in China 2025" national industrial plan.

"The Chinese Communist Party now sees a narrow window of 10-15 years during which Beijing can take advantage of and shape ground-breaking new technological transformations that they see as the only option for lifting the country from a middle-income country to a high-income country," Kasper Ingeman Beck told, and goes on to say "They have pursued this through an investment-oriented economic model where politically chosen industries have received massive financial support."

On the EV front, this focus has resulted in the creation of a crowded field of Chinese EV manufacturers pumped up on public money – which the Chinese economy is unlikely to be able to support in the long run, according to industry adviser Toender. 

"So right now Chinese car companies are engaged in a brutal fight to the death over who remains standing a few years from now. As a result, we are seeing Chinese manufacturers rapidly releasing new EV models, constantly innovating and slashing prices." -Rene Toender

Fierce competition combined with overinvestment have contributed to Chinese car companies currently manufacturing between 5 and 10 million excess vehicles a year. 

"Many end up as exports as an unintended consequence of the investment-led economic model, not by design," Beck said.

Toender said that the Chinese government is likely not actively trying to flood Western markets with excess EVs.
"That would result in an even larger outcry and force Western lawmakers to shut the Chinese manufacturers out of the market for good," he said. "Instead, the Chinese EVs that we do see making it to the European market are being priced much higher than at the cutthroat prices back in China."

In some countries, BYD charges two or three times the price for some models compared with China.

Toender said that is a sign that Beijing is not looking to make a quick profit, but to establish Chinese companies in the market long-term.

In Copenhagen, electric car enthusiast Anders Berner said his test drive of the BYD Seal left him feeling underwhelmed.
"It is where it needs to be, but it doesn't wow," he said, adding that many Chinese EVs are less fine-tuned to drive than their European peers. "So, there is generally some room for improvement there."

Still, Berner has little doubt that Chinese manufacturers will be able to iron out such niggles over time.

Despite the pressures facing Chinese EVs, he is convinced that Chinese EVs will become an increasingly common sight on European roads.

"And I think we will eventually come to accept Chinese EVs."- Anders Berner

Sports news: F1 2024

NEED TO KNOW: The most important facts, stats and trivia ahead of the 2024 British Grand Prix

Formula 1 moves from Spielberg to Silverstone for the British Grand Prix and the final part of this triple-header sequence. Going into the weekend, Need to Know is your all-in-one guide with stats, trivia, insight and much more. You can also see how fans have voted using our F1 Play predictor game.

First and second practice at the historic venue will take place on Friday, July 5, followed by final practice and qualifying on Saturday, July 6 and the Grand Prix itself on Sunday, July 7.

Vital statistics

▶ First Grand Prix – 1950

▶ Track Length – 5.891km

▶ Lap record – 1m 27.097s, Max Verstappen, Red Bull, 2020

▶ Most pole positions – Lewis Hamilton (7)

▶ Most wins – Lewis Hamilton (8)

▶ Trivia – Silverstone hosted the inaugural Formula 1 World Championship round on May 13, 1950

▶ Pole run to Turn 1 braking point – 239 metres

▶ Overtakes completed in 2023 – 50

▶ Safety Car probability – 89%

▶ Virtual Safety Car probability – 22%

▶ Pit stop time loss – 19.9 seconds (includs 2.5s stop)

FAN VIEW: It's a long time since Max Verstappen didn't lead the voting in the category of pole favourite, but it is Lando Norris who is the number one pick for F1 Play gamers so far. He has a slight edge over his Dutch rival heading into a spicy weekend at Silverstone after that high-profile incident at the Red Bull Ring.

The driver's verdict

Jolyon Palmer, former Renault F1 driver: Silverstone is another drivers' favourite with fast, flowing sequences and some of the best corners in the world. Copse, Maggots and Becketts are where you feel G-force on your body that is pretty rare in Formula 1.

Copse is a big challenge even though there's run-off – you go so quick that if anything goes wrong there you're still going to be in trouble. And then the change of direction through Maggots and Becketts is quite a lot of fun.

Slowing it down through the final part of that is the key to make sure you get the exit onto the Hangar Straight as well – it's about finding a rhythm through those sweeping parts. All of this puts a lot of strain on the front-left tyre and we've seen some issues here in the past.

Abbey is the one that is flat-out, but if you're tucked in behind someone in race conditions it can be on the edge. Overtaking is also very possible with the new loop that's not very new anymore – Turn 3 if you fancy a lunge, Turn 6 as well.

Maybe the hardest corner on the circuit is Brooklands, a big braking zone where it's easy to just trail a bit of brake into the apex and snatch a wheel there. It's so good as an overtaking area but also an easy area to make a little mistake.

Last five British GP pole-sitters

▶2023 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

▶2022 – Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)

▶2021 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

▶2020 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

▶2019 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)

Last five British GP winners

▶ 2023 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

▶ 2022 – Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)

▶ 2021 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

▶ 2020 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

▶ 2019 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

FAN VIEW: Slightly more like business as usual here in terms of victory favourites, with Verstappen having a pronounced edge despite the McLarens (and Mercedes now) really starting to pick up pace. Max has the support of around 70% of F1 Play gamers with Norris on around 25%. It is slim pickings for the rest of the grid.

"[At] 5.861 kilometres long, the track is the fifth longest on the calendar after Spa-Francorchamps (7.004 km), Jeddah (6.175 km), Las Vegas (6.120 km) and Baku (6.003 km)," reads Pirelli's weekend preview.

"It features 18 corners and is one of the most exciting and also one of the most demanding for the car-tyre package."Some corner combinations, such as those from 10 to 14 – Maggotts, Becketts and Chapel – are taken at high speed and generate lateral forces on the tyres and drivers of over 5g: the average figure at Silverstone is similar to that seen at Spa and Suzuka.

"This, along with other technical aspects, means that as is always the case here, the compounds chosen for this round are the hardest in the range, the C1 as P Zero hard, the C2 as P Zero medium and the C3 as P Zero soft.

"The front axle comes under the greatest strain and the prevalence of right-hand turns means that the left front is the tyre that wears the most.

"The weather in England in the summer can always be very changeable, a further factor to be taken into consideration, especially as conditions can change very rapidly.

"Last year the entire race was run in the dry, with the soft a somewhat surprising protagonist, with only two teams not using it. However, the most used compound was the medium, which was used to complete half the overall mileage.

"The great majority of drivers went for a one-stop strategy, even if in the past, a two-stop had been a popular choice."

FAN VIEW: With the McLarens and Mercs now strongly fancied to gatecrash the Red Bull party on Sundays, it is Ferrari who is all of a sudden on the outside looking in for a podium. And notably, more F1 Play gamers like the hopes of Carlos Sainz than those of his Maranello team mate, Charles Leclerc.

Current form

Max Verstappen and Lando Norris were the star performers for the majority of the Austrian Grand Prix weekend, scrapping it out in qualifying and going wheel-to-wheel in both the Sprint and Grand Prix.

It underlined that, in Verstappen and Norris's hands especially, Red Bull and McLaren boast the fastest cars at this stage of the 2024 season, with a recovering Mercedes and a stuttering Ferrari one step behind them.

But while that was certainly the case at the Red Bull Ring, the dramatic clash between the lead Red Bull and McLaren machines sent both drivers back to the pits and turned the race on its head, opening the door for a shock George Russell win.

While many expect Verstappen and Norris to be competing at the front again at Silverstone, it adds a fascinating dynamic to their battle, while giving Mercedes a boost in their quest to be in the mix weekend in, weekend out.

Ferrari will also be looking to get their season back on track after tough weekends in Canada, Spain and Austria, and a struggling Aston Martin now have a fight on their hands to stay at the head of the midfield.

FAN VIEW: While the Aston Martins of Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll have more support here as probable points scorers, it is Nico Hulkenberg of Haas who is really making F1 Play gamers sit up and take notice. There is also backing for the revitalised Alpines of Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon.

Human Relations

Children-How to Be Humble

Parents

WHAT IS HUMILITY?

Humble people are respectful. They do not behave arrogantly, nor do they expect others to treat them as special. Rather, a person with humility takes genuine interest in others and is willing to learn from them.

Sometimes humility is misjudged as a weakness. In reality, it is a strength that helps people recognize their faults and acknowledge their limitations.

WHY IS HUMILITY IMPORTANT?

▶Humility benefits relationships.

"Overall, humble people are more connected to others," says the book The Narcissism Epidemic. It adds that such people find it "easier to relate to other people and the wider world." 

▶Humility benefits your child's future.Learning to be humble will help your child both now and later in life​—for example, when seeking employment.

"The young person with bloated self-esteem, unaware of her own deficiencies, is unlikely to do well in the job interview," writes Dr. Leonard Sax. "But the young person who is genuinely interested in what the recruiter has to say is more likely to get the job."

HOW TO TEACH HUMILITY

Encourage a balanced view of self

▶Avoid misleading maxims. Sayings like "All your dreams can come true" and "You can be anything that you want to be" might sound inspiring, but they often do not prove true in real life. Your children will likely be more successful if they have reasonable goals and work hard to achieve them.

▶Praise specific actions. Simply telling a child that he or she is "awesome" does not encourage humility. Be specific.

▶Limit your child's use of social media. Often, social media is linked with self-promotion​—broadcasting a person's talents and accomplishments—​the very opposite of humility.

▶Encourage your child to apologize quickly. Help your child to see where he is wrong and to acknowledge it.

Promote gratitude

▶Gratitude for creation. Children should appreciate nature and how much we depend on it for survival. We need air to breathe, water to drink, and food to eat. Use these examples to instill appreciation, awe, and gratitude for the wonders of the natural world.

▶Gratitude for people. Remind your child that everyone is superior to him in one way or another and that instead of being jealous of others' skills and abilities, he can learn from them.

▶Expressing gratitude. Teach your children to say "thank you," not just with words but with genuine appreciation. A grateful spirit has been called a building block of humility.

Teach your children that there is value in serving others.

▶Expect your child to do chores. Exempting your child from family chores might give him the message, 'You are too important to do this!' Family duties should come first, and playing second. Point out how chores benefit others and how others will appreciate and respect him for doing them.

▶Emphasize that serving others is a privilege. Doing so is a primary way to develop maturity. Therefore, encourage your child to identify those in need. Discuss with him what he can do to help them. Commend and support your child as he serves others.

TRAIN NOW

A child who learns to perform humble tasks at home is more likely to work well with others as an adult.

Teach by Example

▶Do I let my children know that at times I also need help from others?

▶Do I speak positively and appreciatively about others, or do I belittle them?

▶Do my children see that I value serving others?

What We Did . . .

"Our daughter told us about a classmate who, she said, is mean to others and is not liked. I told her to think of what that girl might be going through at home. After all, not everybody has a good family life. That helped our daughter to see that she is not better than others. She may just have better circumstances."​—Jenny.

"We encourage our daughters to enjoy what they learn in school and simply to do their best without comparing themselves to others. We want them to know that we will not compare them to others either."​—Deborah.

Children-How to Be Resilient

Parents

WHAT IS RESILIENCE?

A resilient person bounces back from obstacles and disappointments. This skill is acquired through experience. Just as a child cannot learn how to walk without an occasional fall, he cannot learn how to succeed in life without experiencing occasional setbacks.

WHY IS RESILIENCE IMPORTANT?

Some children get discouraged when they meet with failure, adversity, or criticism. Others give up entirely. However, they need to understand the following facts:

▶Failure is inevitable in some endeavors.​

▶Adversity affects everyone at some point.​▶Correction is vital for learning.​

Resilience will help your child face life's challenges with confidence.

HOW TO TEACH RESILIENCE

When your child fails

Help your child put things in perspective. For example, what would he do if he failed a test at school? He might give up, saying, "I can't do anything right!"

To teach resilience, help your child work out a strategy that will help him to improve. In this way, he will take charge of the problem rather than become a victim of it.

At the same time, avoid fixing the problem for your child. Instead, help him create his own plan. You might ask him, "What can you do to improve your understanding of the subject that is being taught?"

When adversity strikes

Life is unpredictable. A person who is rich today might be poor tomorrow; a person who is healthy today might be sick tomorrow, because time and unexpected events overtake them all. 

As a parent, you rightly take reasonable steps to protect your child from danger. Realistically, though, it is not possible to shield your child from all of life's adversities.

Of course, your child may not be old enough to experience the loss of a job or a financial reversal. Still, you can help him cope with other adversities​—for example, the loss of a friendship or the death of a family member.

When your child receives constructive criticism

Constructive criticism is not bullying; it is guidance that addresses an action or an attitude that needs to change. When you teach your child to accept correction, both of you are spared much grief.

"If children are always rescued from their errors," says a father named John, "they will never learn. They will jump from one problem to the next, and you will spend your life following them, stomping out the fires that they cause. That makes life miserable for the parents and the child." 

How can you help your child benefit from constructive criticism? When your child receives it​—whether at school or anywhere else—​resist the urge to say that the correction is unfair. Instead, you could ask:

▶"Why do you think the correction was given?"

▶"How can you improve?"

▶"What will you do the next time you are in this situation?"

Remember, constructive criticism will serve your child well, not only now but also in adulthood.

TRAIN NOW

A child who is able to bounce back from disappointments and mistakes is more likely to persevere when learning skills and to become proficient at them.

Teach by Example

▶Do I admit my mistakes, or do I blame others?

▶Do I talk about my failures and what I learned from them?

▶Do I ridicule others for their mistakes?

What We Did . . .

"We did not protect our children from every challenge, failure, or mistake. When I was young, enduring those things made me a better person. I feel that both of our children grew up to be balanced, well-adjusted adults because they were not pampered."​—Stefan.

"When my wife and I made mistakes with our children, we would always apologize. I believe that parents should share their own mistakes, setbacks, and errors with their children to emphasize that it's just part of life."​—Jacob.

Earth

Attention to the Environment

Although the earth produces clean air, nourishing food, and fresh water, humans are increasingly disrupting these natural processes. Scientists are desperately seeking solutions to reverse this trend. 

Australia

It is estimated that as much as 120,000 cubic miles (500,000 cu km) of low-salinity water lies beneath the floor of the world's oceans. "The sea level was [once] much lower than it is today," says Vincent Post of Flinders University in Adelaide, so the coastline was farther out. At that time, rain would "fill up the water table in areas that are nowadays under the sea." Scientists hope that these undersea reserves may in time help some of the over 700 million people who have limited access to clean water.

Sahara Desert

Half the large animal species once found in the Sahara have either disappeared or are now confined to only 1 percent or less of their original range. Regional instability and widespread hunting are only partly to blame. Although the biodiversity of deserts rivals that of forests, researchers say that "the lack of scientific attention given to desert biodiversity is mirrored by a lack of financial support." As a result, it is difficult for conservationists to monitor endangered desert ecosystems.

World

It has been estimated that 1 in 8 deaths in 2012 occurred as a result of air pollution. 

According to the World Health Organization, "air pollution is now the world's largest single environmental health risk." 

TO THINK ABOUT: Why are hardworking people with noble goals unable to stop the destruction of our environment? 

"A generation is going, and a generation is coming, but the earth remains forever."—KING SOLOMON, 11TH CENTURY B.C.E.

To the ancient Bible writer, the fleeting nature of man stood in sharp contrast with the permanence of the earth. Indeed, for thousands of years, generations have come and gone, and yet the planet Earth has proved to be remarkably resilient and stable in its ability to host life—until now.

The years since World War II have been dubbed by some as the Great Acceleration. In a single lifetime, people have seen remarkable advances in transportation, communication, and other technologies, which have brought unprecedented economic changes. Many enjoy a standard of living once thought impossible. In the meantime, the earth's population has nearly tripled.

All of this, however, has not come without cost. Human activities are said to be pushing the earth beyond its natural cycles. In fact, some scientists say we have entered a new geological epoch called the Anthropocene—an age in which humans are making an increasingly notable impact on the planet.

Some wonder:  How much further damage will be done? Is there a point of no return? Indeed, will man ruin the earth beyond repair?

A POINT OF NO RETURN?

Is the earth headed for a point of no return? Some scientists feel that the effect of changes can be difficult to predict. Because of this, they are concerned that we might be approaching "tipping points" where sudden and unanticipated climate changes could bring disastrous results.

Consider, for example, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Some believe that with sustained global warming, there is a point where the melt of this ice sheet could be irreversible. This is because ice cover naturally reflects the sun's rays. But as the ice sheet thins and shrinks, the ocean below, which is less reflective, is eventually exposed. The dark ocean surface absorbs more heat, which in turn leads to greater melting. A self-feeding, runaway cycle could be created. The resulting rise in sea levels from the meltwater could spell disaster for hundreds of millions of people.

MOUNTING ECOLOGICAL DEBT

Various road maps have been drawn up to deal with the "planetary emergency" we now face. One long-standing strategy has been called sustainable development, which means promoting economic and social growth within the ecological limits of the planet. What have been the results?

Sadly, like the global financial debt crisis, earth's ecological debt continues to mount unabated. Humans continue to consume our planet's resources faster than these can be replenished naturally. Can something be done? One ecologist frankly acknowledged: "In a sense, we don't have any clue how to manage the planet successfully."

According to his secretary Pyarelal, Mohandas Gandhi, the late spiritual leader of India, observed: "Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need but not for every man's greed." 

Good Life

Mental Health

Teens: New study reveals links between social anxiety, depression and suicidal thoughts

AS IF war, murder, and atrocities were not enough to devastate our youths, there is self-destruction in the form of youth suicide. Drug and alcohol abuse ravage the minds and bodies of youths, causing many deaths among young people. An increasingly familiar epitaph is that the victim OD'd—died of a drug overdose, either deliberately or accidentally.

A Worldwide Problem

Teens who show higher levels of social anxiety symptoms are more likely to report increased suicidal thoughts and other depressive symptoms two years later, according to new research. The University of East Anglia-led study sheds light on the urgent need for early interventions to tackle social anxiety in young people.

The study, "Social anxiety symptoms and their relationship to suicidal ideation and depressive symptoms in adolescents: A prospective study," is published in JCPP Advances.

The author Dr. Kenny Chiu, Clinical Lecturer in Clinical Psychology at UEA's Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychological Therapies, said: "Social anxiety disorder (SAD) often starts in adolescence, manifesting as intense fear and discomfort in social situations. "This study provides valuable insights into how symptoms of social anxiety can carry risks for the development of other significant mental health issues if left untreated."

Author Professor Argyris Striggaris, Professor of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry at University College London, said: "Our findings suggest that early treatment of social anxiety could be critical in preventing the development of suicidal thoughts and other depressive symptoms."

Depressive symptoms one year after the study also partially explained the link between early social anxiety and later depressive symptoms.

The author Dr. Eleanor Leigh, MRC Clinician Scientist Fellow at the University of Oxford and Honorary Associate Professor at University College London, said: "Our findings highlight that social anxiety plays an important role in the persistence of depressive symptoms in adolescents."

The study is based on a meta-analytic review led by Dr. Eleanor Leigh, Dr. Kenny Chiu and Dra. Elizabeth Ballard, who highlighted the lack of longitudinal research examining the relationship between social anxiety and suicidal thoughts in teenagers. The study analyzed data from the Wellcome Trust Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network (NSPN) cohort data set of 2,400. This accelerated longitudinal study recruited more than 2,400 young people aged between 14 and 24 from the London and Cambridgeshire areas between 2012 and 2017. Participants were assessed over a two-year period, once at the beginning, again one year later and one last time at the end of two years.

Statistics on youth suicide, couched in clinical and analytic terms, are surprisingly easy to read. However, often not appreciated or seen behind each cold statistic are the shattered families and the heartache, misery, pain, and despair of those left behind as they search for reasons.

So, can such tragedies as youth suicide be prevented? Some key factors have been identified and could prove helpful in avoiding this sad situation.

Motivations for Suicide

There are many theories about the motivations for suicide. 

"Suicide results from a person's reaction to a perceived overwhelming problem, such as social isolation, death of a loved one (especially a spouse), a broken home in childhood, serious physical illness, growing old, unemployment, financial problems, and drug abuse."—The American Medical Association Encyclopedia of Medicine.

According to sociologist Emile Durkheim, there are four basic types of suicide:

1. Egoistic suicide 

This "is thought to stem from an individual's lack of integration into society. Largely left to themselves, victims of egoistic suicide are neither connected with, nor dependent on, their community."  They tend to be loners.

2. Altruistic suicide

"The individual is overly integrated into a group so that he or she feels no sacrifice is too great." 

Examples given are Japanese kamikaze pilots in World War II and religious extremists who blow themselves up while killing their supposed enemies. Other examples would be those who have died by self-immolation in order to draw attention to a cause.

3. Anomic suicide

"The victim of anomic suicide is not capable of dealing with a crisis in a rational manner and chooses suicide as the solution to a problem. This occurs when the individual's accustomed relationship with society is suddenly and shockingly altered." 

4. Fatalistic suicide

This is "thought to be caused by excessive societal regulation that fundamentally restricts an individual's freedom." Such victims "feel that they have no viable future."—Adolescent Suicide: Assessment and Intervention, by Alan L. Berman and David A. Jobes.